Samvat 2067

Celebration time for the markets with new highs being reached. Seems we are in for some exciting times ahead for new highs. The only opportunity that looks good right now is to wait for some kind of pullback of 50-100 points on the nifty and enter for long positions. However the issue is that even that might or might not come.

None of the stocks currently are trading cheap. Infact they are trading at highest PE multiples awarded to them, however there seems to be no signs of correction in them. This reminds me of 2007 when the markets were fairly valued at 14000-15000 and then they just ran up to first 18000-19000-20000-21000 eventually. And there were talks of 25000 :) which thankfully never came. Also on the way down markets went below the fair value of 12000 to 7500!!! and just 2 years they are back to more than fairly valued again.

Its impossible to predict the long term movement of the market, guess the only way to make money is buying when the values are cheap ( and mind you that also might be for prolonged periods of time). i remember in 2008-09 tata motors was trading at 200 and below and they came out with a 10% - 12% bond. At that time the stock of tata motors was itself giving a yield of >10% however there were no takers for it. 2 years laters its a 6 bagger at 1200!!!! hence the benefits of value investing....

Well the stocks do look expensive however I have shortlisted some of the stocks that look interesting from this to next Diwali. If the markets hold these large cap stocks would tend to outperform the markets. But a big word of caution the markets must hold :). Reliance, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, ITC. I am not fully convinced about there values since all of them are richly valued however if the markets go up these stocks should tend to lead the rally.

Well so the mantra is invest, wait for the corrections. Utilise the IPOs. and do a systematic investment in good quality stocks only.

Happy Samvat 2067 :)