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31 January, 2010

Going Long


Hi, sorry havent written in a month...actually havent done much except being on the sidelines... saw the markets tank from outside....did not have the courage to go short....

Well will be taking long position tomorrow. 3 reasons

1) RSI has come down to 30 levels they will go up, (although it might be small only)
2) New series with perfect set up to go up
3) Encouraging global data, with US economy going up by 5%

Although a word of caution, keeping a stoploss is warranted

Happy trading!

29 December, 2009

Markets in a happy mood






The markets seemed to have entered a new upturn with the resounding U turn that they took on 23rd. Nifty is nearing to touch the 52 weeks highs and same is the case with sensex. Most good stocks have already crossed their 52 weeks highs. All seems to be hunky dory and there seems to be money to be made in holding on to your stocks. I am just attaching a sample of the graph showing how, Nifty was supposed to go into a downtrend, as MACD had approached 0, and usually MACD goes below 0 and it is a start of a downtrend. However the converse is also true that MACD goes above 0 is a good time to go long. I guess now the same thing is happening with the MACD bouncing from 0 levels, the markets are in a rally mode. The futures are still at a premium underscoring the fact that lot of people have burned their fingers / hands trying to short the market, and are now extremely positive of a good closing.

Will keep posting as some interesting developments happen. Till then it seems that the party is on...Wish you all also a happy new year!

23 December, 2009

Directional Change



Sorry, havent been able to post for a long time, will try to rectify this.

Markets did a surprising U turn today. It was a perfect set up for a decline, with all indicators pointing for a breakdown, however todays move changed all that. I dont remember the last time, when indicators changed so quickly. It was a good case of bulls getting trapped and huge short-covering. Nifty futures from a discount, ended with a 10 point premium.

The moot point is that it would take a lot to break the markets, as each & every down move is faced with more wall of money coming in. With a promise of 8% gdp growth, the markets have more reasons to smile.

17 November, 2009

Allahabad Bank !!!



It seems to be a good buy, with a forward PE ratio of around 4, a dividend yield of around 2% and a price to book of just 1!!! Most of the other public sector banks are in the range of 1.5 Price / book, which means that there is scope for further upside. Also the stock has just made a 52 week high, and the charts are also looking good.

Also what i have observed is that these PSU stocks were 8-10 times cheaper in 2002-03, now this basically means that they have appreciated 8-10 times in 7-9 years!!! Now thats impressive performance, and yes not to mention that these stocks have given a constant stream of dividends, and add to it the stability offered by the govt

09 November, 2009

Nifty short covering rally!!!




I shorted the nifty and the move went wrong!!!

Markets went up by 2%, and I think this might be the start of another uptrend, since the speed with which the markets covered up was amazing. So in 3 days we have covered more than 300 points on the nifty, from a low of 4530 to 4906 (futures). So all the people who shorted in between would have lost a lot (including yours sincerely). And well this is inspite of the fact the US job losses figure is at a 23 year high of 10.2%, and the markets still rallied!!!! Now it sometimes confuses me, whether the markets see more than what meets the eye, or is it some play larger than what normal mortals can think off!!!!

I am now taking a break, as I think I need to rework on my strategies to play the markets profitably. In any case would keep on posting, if I find something interesting coming along....Happy investing....going long....

25 October, 2009

Change of timings!


Sebi has given an ok, to the change of timing of trading on the markets...from current 9:55 a.m to 3:30 p.m to 9:00 a.m to 5.00 p.m (proposed). Hopefully this would help the retail investors to trade with much more ease...good move!


You could soon be able to trade for an additional two-and-a-half hours on stock exchanges with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Friday allowing trading between 9 a m and 5 p m to align timings to international standards.

At present, trading hours are between 9.55 a m and 3.30 p m.

Sebi, however, raised the caveat that the exchanges would have to ensure that risk management systems and infrastructure commensurate to longer trading hours were in place before investors transact for eight hours a day.

TRADING PLACES
Local trading hours (a m to p m)
CashFutures & Options
New York9:30 to 4:006.00 to 5.00*
Singapore9:00 to 5:009:00 to 5:00
Tokyo9:00 to 2:009:00 to 7:00
London8:00 to 4:208:00 to 9:00
India (now)9:55 to 3:309:55 to 3:30
India (soon)9:00 to 5:009:00 to 5:00
Source : Bloomberg * 23 hrs

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) welcomed the Sebi move and added that they would soon extend trade timings. They, however, did not clarify whether timings would be extended to 5 p m, though executives indicated that trading would start at 9 a m.

Last year, NSE had first proposed a change in trading hours at a time when foreign institutional investors and hedge funds preferred to trade on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), where NSE Nifty futures were also listed. With longer trading hours because SGX opened for trading at around 6.30 a m India time, the open interest positions on Nifty futures traded on SGX had reached close to the levels seen on NSE.

“Extending trading hours will improve liquidity and volumes in the market,” said Motilal Oswal, chairman and managing director, Motilal Oswal Securities, adding that the move could also help shift a part of the trading back to the Indian exchanges.

Asked about longer trading hours, a BSE spokesperson said, “We welcome the Sebi directive and we are well-prepared.”

Currency derivatives trading starts at 9 a m and ends at 5 p m, so extending trading hours to equity and equity derivative segment should not be difficult.

Market participants, however, said widespread changes would be required for exchanges to allow trading for eight hours a day. Banks that are involved in settlement, brokerages and exchanges could see an increase in manpower costs , executives said.

They said the risk and collateral management systems would need to be revamped. Further, trade margins would have to be increased and the infrastructure at brokerages, banks and depositories need to be upgraded to handle the additional pressure.

"Though it's a good move that will help us synchronise with the global markets, it may affect productivity because the time for analysis will get squeezed. It will delay the net asset value declaration of mutual funds by at least an hour," said a fund manager with a domestic mutual fund.

“It’s a very positive step. It’s just that market participants will have to realign some processes to deal with longer trading hours,” said Bhavesh Zaveri, head of wholesale banking operations and cash management products at HDFC Bank, the country's largest settlement bank.

An executive at a leading settlement bank said counters would have to open around 8 a m to allow brokers to move funds before trading started. Similarly, the Reserve Bank of India would have to allow real time gross settlement up to 6 p m instead of the 4.30 p m deadline at present, another banker said.

Further, exchanges would have to realign their systems to ensure that pay-in-pay-out files related to settlements are completed faster. At present, when trading finished at 3.30 p m, banks and depositories receive the information related to payments and transfer of shares around 8.30 p m. “This needs to be crunched because we would already be open for 12 hours a day,” said a bank executive.

In addition, a bank executive said entities that are not settlement banks would also need to work longer hours to deal with broker transactions.

source: business standard

14 October, 2009

nifty 2009 highs


Nifty seems to have rebounded well from 4930 odd. What happened on Monday was phenomenal. The markets went down to 4955 and around 1:30 pm, it just burst up. I had shorted the market at 4980, but thankfully I had put a stop loss of 4990, which got triggered. The markets went up from 4955 to 5020 in minutes, and eventually closed at 5050. And that is where the current weakness seems to have ended. So far so good. Have gone long with some select stocks, lets see whether the markets hold up.

06 October, 2009

Sharp Rebound


Shorted the nifty at 5030 yesterday, covered it at 4940 (luckily) today. So got around 90 points from Nifty. Now the level of 5070-5090 becomes very very important to see. If Nifty breaks over the 5070-5090 level, then I dont see much of a possibility of a break down. . .Trading on Nifty is becoming increasingly tricky, and although I made 90 points on the Nifty (and thankfully most of the calls I am making are more or less accurate) yet it is difficult to make money...so its not only important to know app what is going happen, but also use the right setups to ride profitably these trades. Like for e.g. day before yesterday, it was impossible to predict if Nifty would go down, yesterday it was still predictable, but if someone would have shorted yesterday and not covered today then there would have been loss instead of making any profit....

So where do we go from here...caution is very important...now more so than ever...I dont have the conviction to go long and nifty is not allowing to short for a long time...lets see will keep on posting if I find something interesting. And yes I sold off Paradyne (Glodyne) for no profit no loss...though its a multibagger, yet when markets go down, all stocks go down with it....lets hope Oct end is nice shopping time :)

02 October, 2009

Why you should be cautious in October!!!




World markets have started to correct and we are precariously hinged on top...doesnt look good.

October traditionally has not been favorable in any case & this one doesnt look good anyways....

Yest the FII's bought a great amount of money (i think around 700 cr) and yet markets were flat, my fear is what will happen if they start to pull out. FII's put in around 20K crores in the month of Sep, so if they stop markets might not have the support to hang on where they are.


Chartically also we are not looking great, with RSI going above the danger mark and making a double top....the point is that its better to be cautious. . .specially now that the global markets have started to correct. . . .

Lets see where this series leads us....I wont be taking long positions until we break 5200....

21 September, 2009

A long term pick!!! Glodyne Technoserve



This was one stock that I picked up a couple of years back. At that time it was called Paradyne Infosystems. Now the company has changed its name to Glodyne Technoserve. Well the good part is that i picked it up around Rs 70 odd but the bad part is I sold it off at Rs 140 odd...today the stock after 3 years is 750!!! (now with the split it is quoting around 390!!!

And going strong. . .

The good thing about the stock is as follows:

1) A high growth company, from 87 Cr in revenues in 2006 to more than 450 Cr in 2009.

2) A very lowPE: 5.86

3) A good dividend yield: > 10%

4) ROE: > 50%

Going forward this stock looks interesting and still looks cheap. . .